Megan Daugherty, University of South Carolina Columbia

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Abstract:

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme ocean temperatures lasting for an extended period of time, and they can be detected from ocean temperatures. MHWs negatively impact the survival and adaptation of many aquatic species and ecosystems. MHW research has mainly been conducted on a global scale, and they were found to be increasing in intensity, frequency, and duration over time as a result of climate change. However, the effects of MHWs on coastal waters are largely unknown. This research focuses on the Chesapeake Bay because it is located next to the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and contains many marine species that are sensitive to extreme temperatures. Historical ocean surface temperature data was collected from buoys and used to detect MHWs and quantify their intensities, frequencies, and durations in four representative regions from 1984 to 2020 at the 95th percentile threshold. The regions share many similarities and differences among the detected MHWs and their properties. The maximum intensity and duration do not appear to be increasing over time and instead fluctuate. The frequency of MHWs and days above the threshold in the Upper Bay and the Atlantic Ocean are increasing over time. These results shed lights on understanding the effects of historical MHWs on marine ecosystems and predicting future MHW events. Additionally, having this information on past and potential future events also provides insight for fishery harvesting and bay restoration.