Risky Business: Using the Perspective of Insurance Companies to Assess Climate Change Scenarios (Norway Example)
Climate change escalates frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as excessive precipitation and high wind speeds. We use Norwegian data for insurance claims and precipitation levels to identify precipitation thresholds that trigger increased number of house insurance claim and develop a statistical time series model for the claims-precipitation relationship. We evaluate a new data-driven tail comparison method to quantify future change in extreme precipitation and forecast the future change of claims’ counts in the time series model framework. The results show a location-specific change in a number of flood related insurance claims expected based on different climate change scenarios.
Chu, C.*, Y.R. Gel, and V. Lyubchich. 2015. Climate change from an insurance perspective: a case study of Norway. In J. G. Dy et al. (Eds.) Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Climate Informatics: CI2015. ISBN: 978-0-9973548-0-5.
Chu, C.*, Y. Gel, V. Lyubchich. 2015. Climate change from an insurance perspective: A case study of Norway. 5th International Workshop on Climate Informatics, NCAR, Boulder, CO.