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Objectives: To integrate models of demographic, economic and spatial land use change; to model the hydrologic impacts of forecasted land use change assuming multiple future scenarios for the Delmarva Peninsula. Methodology: We propose to link the GAMe coarse-scale growth allocation model with the SLEUTH cellular automated model. SLEUTH is able to consistently and accurately simulate fine-scale development patterns across a range of conditions, but does not take into account the underlying demographic and economic changes that drive growth. These variables are, however, directly addressed by GAMe. We propose to use GAMe's coarse numeric allocations as a constraint for SLEUTH to produce high resolution GIS maps of where growth is likely to locate and how much growth is likely to occur given a range of growth scenarios. The resulting GIS maps will be embedded into GISHydro, a web-enabled GIS application, to evaluate the impacts of different land use change scenarios on water quality and stream fauna richness. Rationale: At present local planning officials do not have an inexpensive, easy-to-use tool that links anticipated growth with environmental resources. Using GISHydro users will be able to explore various future scenarios to define a preferred growth strategy and set of best management practices (BMP) that would accommodate growth and mitigate impacts to the Chesapeake Bay.
Ciavola, SJ; Jantz, CA; Reilly, J; Moglen, GE. 2014. Forecast changes in runoff quality and quantity from urbanization in the DelMarVa Peninsula. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering19(1):1 -9. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000773. UM-SG-RS-2014-01.