Mitchell Buck, Johns Hopkins University

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Abstract:

Current mathematical models for the Chesapeake Bay do not satisfy the current needs of the bay. These models either overly simplify or complicate important parameters; access to these models may be limited as well. Dr. Ming Li and Dr. Liejung Zhong plan to create a user friendly, PC based program based on Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) available to the community at large. This model is currently in development and has not received extensive testing; therefore, this paper accesses the performance of the model to date. This was accomplished by first running the model for two separate years, 1996 and 1997, and then comparing the annual results to both each other and observed data. The results show that the model simulates feasible seasonal physical, chemical and biological interactions and trends for 1996 and 1997. A comparison with observed indicates that the model performs extremely well for the biological parameters-nitrate, ammonia, and phytoplankton-during the summer months, but that the model tends to deviate too much from observed data in the spring and especially the fall.