Multiscale Modeling of Coastal Landscape DynamicsWhile the Chesapeake Bay cleanup has had some success in reversing environmental damage caused by increasing population, the threat posed by rising sea level and land subsidence has yet to be fully addressed. The Blackwater River watershed on Maryland's Eastern Shore is among the most threatened of the state's coastal marshes and shorelines. It is an ecologically rich wetland habitat that historically has been an important spawning area for many species of anadromous fish and a major wintering habitat for water fowl. However, recent erosion rates have been extremely high, and there is a concern that the area's ecological values are being rapidly lost. To slow erosion and subsidence, new restoration strategies are needed, from artificially nourishing habitat marshes to placing tide gates in strategic locations to lessen the impacts of high salinity intrusions. Alternative strategies depend on understanding the natural and manmade changes that have occurred historically in the watershed. This information will be used to develop simulation models to project future changes under various management and climate scenarios. To develop such models, Court Stevenson and Robert Costanza will employ aerial photographs, surface level surveys and other sources from 1850 to 1989 to prepare land cover maps. From these they will develop computer models that can address questions such as how wetland habitat in the Blackwater River watershed has changed over time, what the major causes of these changes are, and what will be the most effective restoration strategies to halt habitat decline. |
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J. Court Stevenson
Horn Point Laboratory University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Robert Costanza Institute for Ecological Economics University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science |
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