Modeling the Effects of Climate Variability on the Prevalence and Intensity of Dermo and MSX Diseases in Eastern Oyster PopulationsThough Dermo and MSX disease have led to heavy mortalities in Chesapeake Bay over the last two decades, their virulence varies from year to year. This is due largely to annual differences in environmental conditions, particularly temperature and salinity. It is well-known, for example, that high salinity (the result of low rainfall) and warm spring and summer temperatures are conducive to proliferation of disease. However, researchers have also found that such generalizations are not sufficient to explain annual variations in disease intensity. Cold winters, for example, have been found to control MSX prevalence and intensity in some regions but not others. In the last five years, Eileen Hofmann and her colleagues have been developing numerical models designed to simulate observations of disease virulence in Chesapeake and Delaware bays. These models incorporate monitoring data from previous years and try to hindcast or predict oyster mortalities that have already been observed. In this project, they will extend these models to forecast the interaction of Dermo and MSX on oyster populations and will account for the effect of climatic changes on initiating and controlling disease outbreaks. With such a predictive capability, management agencies and the oyster industry will be better able to plan disease management programs, whether in restoration projects or commercial aquaculture operations. |
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Stephen Jordan
Sarbanes Cooperative Oxford Laboratory Eric N. Powell and Susan Ford Haskin Shellfish Research Laboratory Rutgers University Eugene Burreson Virginia Institute of Marine Science Eileen Hofmann and John Klinck Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography Old Dominion University |
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